Yet again the situation in Israel-Palestine has turned from a period of relative calm to one of violence. Of course it began with a series of murders by crazy people on both sides but soon devolved into the normal pattern. Hamas shot rockets at Israel; the Israelis responded with air strikes. Hamas continued launching missiles and Israel soon launched a ground offensive. This is not the first time this has happened and it will not be the last. Even if tomorrow John Kerry announces a permanent deal agreed to by all parties promising a settlement along the lines of the 'two state solution' model, the conflict will go on. Imagine it: provocations would still go on and soon a few nutty whack jobs in Palestine would launch a few rockets over some perceived insult and Israel would respond with force. Permanent borders don't matter at all. In Israel this sort of military actions has become known as "mowing the lawn" and I cannot imagine a metaphor that more aptly describes these cycles of constant violence.
Friday, July 25, 2014
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
More Trouble in Ukraine
Before the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, the future of Ukraine appeared to be growing increasingly clear. With Russian troops firmly entrenched in strategically important Crimea it seems clear that the peninsula will remain firmly under Russian control for the foreseeable future. With the election of chocolate magnate Petro Poroshenko as president of the remainder of the country and moderate détente with Vladimir Putin matters took a much clearer turn. The western Ukraine would be governed from Kiev by a pro-European administration, Crimea would be part of Russia, and the Eastern Ukraine would be allowed to remain a part of the country but perhaps under an agreement preserving regional autonomy akin to the Kurdish part of Iraq. The fall of Slavyansk to troops loyal to Kiev and the destruction of Ukrainian military aircraft with Russian made equipment re-enforced this course. Putin's interests in Ukraine, beyond controlling Crimea, did not merit the size of the confrontation necessary to detach the eastern Ukraine. Furthermore removing the eastern Ukraine would drive the remainder of the country rapidly and certainly into the western embrace. Russia was content to slowly deescalate the situation at the most rapid rate possible without seeming to abandon the rebels.
The destruction of the Boeing 777 was a disaster for all parties involved. This event at once embarrassed the Russian state, made the Ukrainian terrorist look like a global threat rather than an unimportant pawn or even victim in the region, it abundantly clear the ongoing failure of the Ukrainian state to maintain a very basic level of security, it has complicated Europe-Asia air travel, has shown how utterly incapable European NATO is at influencing its own back yard, and worst of all throws complications into the process of securing a speedy resolution to the conflict in the region. Basically the disaster has brought the situation into the eyes of the world and any conflict with influenced by a body so utterly divided as the world's population is sure to be the subject of more strife rather than less.
The trouble is pretty simple. While this discredits the Ukrainian rebels (who are almost surely responsible), it garners the attention of the more hawkish elements in Russian politics who might otherwise be fussing about the American attempt to prevent the sale of French ships to Russia. To the extent that more nationalistic elements change their focus, the Russian government is forced to concentrate it's efforts towards prolonging the separatists violence instead of simply complaining about the US in various international venues.
Likewise western citizens just now tuning in are likely to push for investigation of the crash site. Allowing westerners (Nazis in the view of many) to investigate the eastern Ukraine is sure to cause anti-western sentiment to build prolonging efforts to achieve reconciliation with a pro-Europe Kiev government. The best we can hope to do not is dispense with this issue as quickly and quietly as possible so as to speed the region on to a peaceful resolution.
This debacle certainly shows the dangers of arming rebels with more anger than professionalism with high tech weaponry. It also shows the tendency towards violence when global attention is thrown onto any region where western and traditional values and structures conflict. It certainly vindicates the Obama administrations hesitancy on involving itself in the Middle East even if it gives a sad prognosis as regards the ability of the western public to improve matters in far off parts of the world.
Before the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, the future of Ukraine appeared to be growing increasingly clear. With Russian troops firmly entrenched in strategically important Crimea it seems clear that the peninsula will remain firmly under Russian control for the foreseeable future. With the election of chocolate magnate Petro Poroshenko as president of the remainder of the country and moderate détente with Vladimir Putin matters took a much clearer turn. The western Ukraine would be governed from Kiev by a pro-European administration, Crimea would be part of Russia, and the Eastern Ukraine would be allowed to remain a part of the country but perhaps under an agreement preserving regional autonomy akin to the Kurdish part of Iraq. The fall of Slavyansk to troops loyal to Kiev and the destruction of Ukrainian military aircraft with Russian made equipment re-enforced this course. Putin's interests in Ukraine, beyond controlling Crimea, did not merit the size of the confrontation necessary to detach the eastern Ukraine. Furthermore removing the eastern Ukraine would drive the remainder of the country rapidly and certainly into the western embrace. Russia was content to slowly deescalate the situation at the most rapid rate possible without seeming to abandon the rebels.
The destruction of the Boeing 777 was a disaster for all parties involved. This event at once embarrassed the Russian state, made the Ukrainian terrorist look like a global threat rather than an unimportant pawn or even victim in the region, it abundantly clear the ongoing failure of the Ukrainian state to maintain a very basic level of security, it has complicated Europe-Asia air travel, has shown how utterly incapable European NATO is at influencing its own back yard, and worst of all throws complications into the process of securing a speedy resolution to the conflict in the region. Basically the disaster has brought the situation into the eyes of the world and any conflict with influenced by a body so utterly divided as the world's population is sure to be the subject of more strife rather than less.
The trouble is pretty simple. While this discredits the Ukrainian rebels (who are almost surely responsible), it garners the attention of the more hawkish elements in Russian politics who might otherwise be fussing about the American attempt to prevent the sale of French ships to Russia. To the extent that more nationalistic elements change their focus, the Russian government is forced to concentrate it's efforts towards prolonging the separatists violence instead of simply complaining about the US in various international venues.
Likewise western citizens just now tuning in are likely to push for investigation of the crash site. Allowing westerners (Nazis in the view of many) to investigate the eastern Ukraine is sure to cause anti-western sentiment to build prolonging efforts to achieve reconciliation with a pro-Europe Kiev government. The best we can hope to do not is dispense with this issue as quickly and quietly as possible so as to speed the region on to a peaceful resolution.
This debacle certainly shows the dangers of arming rebels with more anger than professionalism with high tech weaponry. It also shows the tendency towards violence when global attention is thrown onto any region where western and traditional values and structures conflict. It certainly vindicates the Obama administrations hesitancy on involving itself in the Middle East even if it gives a sad prognosis as regards the ability of the western public to improve matters in far off parts of the world.
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